Date Posted: 8/13/2013 2:19:33 PM Subject: Ed's 2013 Keeper Predictions
Last week the league ventured into virgin territory by creating our own Ustream channel found here: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/tftf-league-channel where Doug and I bullshitted about keeper predictions, however I cannot remember half of what I said. Doug has convinced me we still need to write articles for the website, so here I am. But before I do that I want to go over Ustream, our plans include doing a couple of broadcasts per year on the channel and also opening the channel up to anyone in the league who would like to do a show. Our only rule is that you don't use any racist stuff because this is a public channel and even though it might be fucking hilarious to us, it will likely get us in a lot of trouble if someone saw it and reported it. After all Ustream is a public forum. Whether or not this will be a successful venture remains to be seen, but it's something fun and something no one else does.
Now, back to keepers. Predicting keepers has more to do with the tendencies of the person making the selection than it does with who's the best possible player to select. A lot of us are set in our ways and follow the same patterns year after year. For instance, Teddy likes older, more established players who have earlier round values. Ed Fink takes a lot of second or third year players with late round values. I like to pick running backs most years. Jerry picks players he is personally a fan of. So, there's a lot of examples of the league's tendencies and if you pay attention to those trends you can have a pretty good idea on who will be available very early in the process.
My predictions for the snake league go like this:
Teddy - Teddy has a couple choices in front of him. He could go with Aaron Rodgers in the first, but that means he will have Aaron Rodgers as the first pick overall. Two other players in which Teddy really likes are Darren Sproles and Julio Jones. Sproles has a second round value, but that would make him the 24th pick of the draft. the more logical choice would be Julio Jones who has a third round value. Jones has enough value and still gives Teddy the opportunity to get some great players in rounds 1 and 2.
Mo - Mo could take Arian Foster in the first round at pick 11 and still get a steal of a deal. However, Trent Richardson in the second round makes far more sense to me and offers some upside. Neither player will likely be there at pick 11 so Mo will choose one of them and I think that guy is Richardson.
Jared - This could be the hardest keeper to predict. Most of Jared's top players are either coming off an injury or is currently injured. I think the decision comes down to Matt Ryan and Mikel Leshoure. Leshoure has a tenth round value, but Ryan will give Jared a top ten, possibly top five QB and still not have to spend an early pick on him. However, I'm choosing Leshoure, because of the value (10th) and because he is a TD machine which his counterpart Reggie Bush is clearly not. May as well take a risk with this lineup. Also, if Jared wants Ryan he'll probably have his chance in round 4 or 5 anyway.
Jerry - Anyone who doesn't think this is Colin Kaepernick is just plain nuts.
Matt - Lots of choices here, but not a lot of value. If it's me, this pick is RG III (10th rd). However, I doubt Matt would use a QB as his pick this year. Forte is not an option in the first round (no value). This is either Ridley in round 6 or Ronnie Hillman in round 15. And since Hillman's playing time is in doubt, Matt is going to choose Ridley.
Me - It's not going to be Brees
Ed Fink - It's going to be a late rounder, which could be Randall Cobb in the 15th or Alfred Morris in the 12th. If it were me, it's Brandon Marshall, but Ed likes to get the most bang for his buck. I say Alfred Morris is the best choice but I would not be surprised if it were Cobb.
Doug - I think Doug has made it quite clear that Adrian Peterson is the choice in round 2.
Josh - Josh has picked Ray Rice for at least the past two years. This year Frank Gore and Dez Bryant are also contenders. Bryant in the 4th is a good value. Gore is pretty much a third round value which is what he is currently. Josh might be afraid to lose Rice to Teddy so I think he takes him again.
Pat - The returning champ has CJ Spiller in round 8, but also has the more dependable and durable Doug Martin in the 3rd. Demaryius Thomas is in the mix too but it would be kind of lame not to pick one of the RB's. I think the choice is Martin as the Bucs are on the rise and the Bills suck horribly.
Andy - Not a lot of variety here, it's going to be a first rounder either Peyton or AJ Green. You can't lose either way, but Green's injury may scare Andy towards Manning.
Justin - If you want a real sleeper, the choice is Chris Givens in the 15th. The most logical choice is Marshawn Lynch, but he would cost a 1st round pick. Everyone else is injured or useless. I say Justin takes Lynch.
Moving on to the Auction League, where money is main factor. Some like to form their teams at the auction, others like to keep their teams intact. Either way it's very hard to predict. Ok, here we go:
Starting with Josh, who had a horrible 2012 season. There are few reasons to keep more than a couple of these players from this team. Overpriced and over aged players do not win games in the auction league. Peyton Manning at $35 and Frank Gore at $29 are the players worth keeping. James Jones is also a possibility at $8 but it isn't likely that Josh knows who that is.
Matt - Matt won last year after acquiring Aaron Rodgers for $73. Rodgers is $78 this year and if you are willing to spend $73, you are probably willing to spend $78. Arian Foster is $45 and is approaching his max value. It's a toss up on whether or not he is kept, but I think he does. Steven Ridley at $14 or CJ Spiller at $12 are virtual locks to be kept. I also think Vincent Jackson will be kept at $16.
Andy - Andy returns many good players from a team that probably was a disappointment last year. Adrian Peterson is a lock at only $30 as is Julio Jones at $16. Brandon Marshall is at $38 and is a toss up to be kept and I think he will be. This will give Andy one of the top WR combos out there. Andrew Luck will probably be kept at $10, which after this season will likely be a steal of a deal.
Ed Fink - Ed will probably keep several players this year. Alfred Morris at $6, David Wilson at $13 and Reggie Wayne at $14 are all likely to be kept. AJ Green is only $13 but is also a restricted free agent and will likely be claimed. Ed is likely to match the claim which will give Green a $28 value. Randall Cobb is $15 and is an Ed Fink favorite. Ray Rice at $61 is the big question mark, but Ed has the cap room to absorb that cap hit. I think Rice remains on the team.
Justin - There aren't a lot of players here worth keeping. Wes Welker at $17 is a lock as is DeMarco Murray at $12. Other than that, I don't see anyone else worth the effort.
Jared - This team doesn't have a lot of players worth keeping either. Calvin Johnson at $55 is probably his market value and will likely be kept. LeSean McCoy coming off an injury isn't likely to be kept. However, Marshawn Lynch is $18 and is a restricted free agent. This means his value will likely be $33 which will likely be matched by Jared.
Jerry - Of course Jerry will keep Kaepernick at $15. Jamaal Charles at $35 is a likely choice as well. Finally, Victor Cruz at $20 will be the third player chosen. Jerry usually doesn't keep too many players.
Doug - Doug may have the biggest roster going into the auction. I have him keeping Cam Newton at $20, Josh Gordon at $15, Mike Williams at $15, Jimmy Graham at $18, Demaryius Thomas at $23, Trent Richardson at $21 and Matt Forte at $37. This puts Doug at $149 and very few spots to fill at the auction.
Teddy - Teddy could surprise everyone and not keep anyone, but I think he will keep at least a few guys. After all, he kept Nate Washington last year. Darren Sproles at $14 is a nice value. Desean Jackson at $17 is a question mark, but I think Teddy still keeps him. Gronkowski is injured but at $12 is worth the risk. Finally, I think Teddy takes a big swing with keeping DeAngelo Williams (an old favorite) at $13.
We'll see how these picks shake out. Remember to have your selections to me by noon on Sunday.
See you at the draft!
Post Edited on 8/13/2013 2:26:52 PM
